A multi-country dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility for euro area business cycle analysis [0.03%]
用于欧元区经济周期分析的多国动态因子模型及随机波动分析
Florian Huber,Michael Pfarrhofer,Philipp Piribauer
Florian Huber
This paper develops a dynamic factor model that uses euro area country-specific information on output and inflation to estimate an area-wide measure of the output gap. Our model assumes that output and inflation can be decomposed into count...
Niko Hauzenberger,Florian Huber
Niko Hauzenberger
In this paper we aim to improve existing empirical exchange rate models by accounting for uncertainty with respect to the underlying structural representation. Within a flexible Bayesian framework, our modeling approach assumes that differe...
J De Beer
J De Beer
This study addresses problems concerning the forecasting of net migration in the preparation of population forecasts. "As the width of forecast intervals for migration in single years differs strongly from that of an interval for average mi...
How accurate are the U.S. Bureau of the Census projections of total live births [0.03%]
美国人口调查局关于总活产数预测的准确性有多高？
D A Ahlburg
D A Ahlburg
"The accuracy of total live birth forecasts issued by the U.S. Bureau of the Census was analysed. Forecast accuracy has not improved significantly since 1950. Further, the forecasts are not more accurate than several naive alternatives. Mov...
The impact of forecasting methodology on the accuracy of national population forecasts: evidence from the Netherlands and Czechoslovakia [0.03%]
预测方法对国家人口预测准确性的影响：来自荷兰和捷克斯洛伐克的证据
N Keilman,T Kucera
N Keilman
"This study considers the accuracy of national population forecasts of the Netherlands and the Czechoslovak Socialist Republic.... We look at the demographic components employed in each forecast, the procedure to extrapolate fertility and t...
A Garcia-ferrer,J Del Hoyo
A Garcia-ferrer
"The starting hypothesis of this paper was the actual occurrence of important interactions between demographic and socio-economic factors when trying to reach population forecasts that may be more efficient than those obtained by mere extra...
N Meade
N Meade
"The main theme of this paper is an investigation into the importance of error structure as a determinant of the forecasting accuracy of the logistic model. The relationship between the variance of the disturbance term and forecasting accur...
I E Corner
I E Corner
"The role of household projections as a basis for forecasts of households at [the] national and sub-national level is discussed and a number of criteria for such projections are outlined. The projection method used by the Department of the ...