Complexity of Government response to COVID-19 pandemic: a perspective of coupled dynamics on information heterogeneity and epidemic outbreak [0.03%]
政府应对COVID-19疫情的复杂性：信息异质性和流行病突发性相互作用的视角
Xiaoqi Zhang,Jie Fu,Sheng Hua et al.
Xiaoqi Zhang et al.
This study aims at modeling the universal failure in preventing the outbreak of COVID-19 via real-world data from the perspective of complexity and network science. Through formalizing information heterogeneity and government intervention i...
A mathematical interpretation for outbreaks of bacterial meningitis under the effect of time-dependent transmission parameters [0.03%]
时间依赖性传播参数下细菌性脑膜炎爆发的数学解释
Can Türkün,Meltem Gölgeli,Fatihcan M Atay
Can Türkün
We consider a SIR-type compartmental model divided into two age classes to explain the seasonal exacerbations of bacterial meningitis, especially among children outside of the meningitis belt. We describe the seasonal forcing through time-d...
Dynamics of a cross-superdiffusive SIRS model with delay effects in transmission and treatment [0.03%]
具有传播和治疗时滞效应的交叉超级扩散SIRS模型的动力学
Alain Mvogo,Sedrique A Tiomela,Jorge E Macías-Díaz et al.
Alain Mvogo et al.
We investigate the dynamics of a SIRS epidemiological model taking into account cross-superdiffusion and delays in transmission, Beddington-DeAngelis incidence rate and Holling type II treatment. The superdiffusion is induced by inter-count...
A stochastic agent-based model to evaluate COVID-19 transmission influenced by human mobility [0.03%]
一种评估受人类流动性影响的COVID-19传播的随机代理模型
Kejie Chen,Xiaomo Jiang,Yanqing Li et al.
Kejie Chen et al.
The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for mathematical models that can project epidemic trends and evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies. A major challenge in forecasting the transmission of COVID-19 is the accurate...
Effect of sojourn time distributions on the early dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak [0.03%]
停留时间分布对COVID-19大流行早期动力学的影响
Huseyin Tunc,Murat Sari,Seyfullah Enes Kotil
Huseyin Tunc
Compartmental models are commonly used in practice to investigate the dynamical response of infectious diseases such as the COVID-19 outbreak. Such models generally assume exponentially distributed latency and infectiousness periods. Howeve...
Application of a time-delay SIR model with vaccination in COVID-19 prediction and its optimal control strategy [0.03%]
应用疫苗接种的带有时间延迟的SIR模型于COVID-19预测及其最优控制策略
Suyalatu Dong,Linlin Xu,Yana A et al.
Suyalatu Dong et al.
In the classical infectious disease compartment model, the parameters are fixed. In reality, the probability of virus transmission in the process of disease transmission depends on the concentration of virus in the environment, and the conc...
Georgios Margazoglou,Luca Magri
Georgios Margazoglou
The prediction of the temporal dynamics of chaotic systems is challenging because infinitesimal perturbations grow exponentially. The analysis of the dynamics of infinitesimal perturbations is the subject of stability analysis. In stability...
Two novel nonlinear multivariate grey models with kernel learning for small-sample time series prediction [0.03%]
两个新型非线性多变量灰色系统模型及核学习方法在短序列预测中的应用研究
Lan Wang,Nan Li,Ming Xie et al.
Lan Wang et al.
For many applications, small-sample time series prediction based on grey forecasting models has become indispensable. Many algorithms have been developed recently to make them effective. Each of these methods has a specialized application d...
Uncertainty quantification in mechanistic epidemic models via cross-entropy approximate Bayesian computation [0.03%]
基于交叉熵的近似贝叶斯计算在机理流行病模型中的不确定性量化问题研究
Americo Cunha Jr,David A W Barton,Thiago G Ritto
Americo Cunha Jr
This paper proposes a data-driven approximate Bayesian computation framework for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification of epidemic models, which incorporates two novelties: (i) the identification of the initial conditions by u...
Assessing stock market contagion and complex dynamic risk spillovers during COVID-19 pandemic [0.03%]
评估COVID-19大流行期间的股票市场传染和复杂动态风险溢出效应
Yunfan Lu,Di Xiao,Zhiyong Zheng
Yunfan Lu
A very important area where COVID-19 has seriously disrupted is the global financial markets, where stock markets have experienced great turmoil. To shed light on the nature of this turmoil and to characterize nonlinear dynamics in inter-ma...