The short-term effect of a COVID-19 infection on employment probabilities of labour-market entrants in the Netherlands [0.03%]
新冠疫情对荷兰劳动力市场准入者就业概率的短期影响
Henri Bussink,Tobias Vervliet,Bas Ter Weel
Henri Bussink
This research estimates the effect of a COVID-19 infection on the employment probabilities of two cohorts of labour-market entrants in the Netherlands. To identify the causal effect, we exploit variation in registered (positive) COVID-19 (P...
Introducing shrinkage in heavy-tailed state space models to predict equity excess returns [0.03%]
通过引入收缩性来预测重型状态空间模型的股票超额收益
Florian Huber,Gregor Kastner,Michael Pfarrhofer
Florian Huber
We forecast excess returns of the S &P 500 index using a flexible Bayesian econometric state space model with non-Gaussian features at several levels. More precisely, we control for overparameterization via global-local shrinkage priors on ...
Simultaneity in binary outcome models with an application to employment for couples [0.03%]
二元结果模型中的同期问题及在夫妻就业情况下的应用
Bo E Honoré,Luojia Hu,Ekaterini Kyriazidou et al.
Bo E Honoré et al.
Two of Peter Schmidt's many contributions to econometrics have been to introduce a simultaneous logit model for bivariate binary outcomes and to study estimation of dynamic linear fixed effects panel data models using short panels. In this ...
Macroeconomic effects of uncertainty: a Google trends-based analysis for India [0.03%]
基于Google Trends的不确定性对宏观经济的影响：针对印度的分析
Bhanu Pratap,Nalin Priyaranjan
Bhanu Pratap
This study proposes a new high-frequency indicator to measure economic policy uncertainty in the context of India, a large emerging market economy. Based on internet search intensity data, the proposed index tends to peak around domestic an...
Intratemporal elasticity of substitution between private and public consumption: new evidence and implications [0.03%]
私人消费和公共消费的 intratemporal替代弹性：新证据及其影响
John Nana Francois,Andrew Keinsley
John Nana Francois
This paper estimates the intratemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) between private and public consumption in private utility. Using panel data for 17 European countries over 1970-2018, we estimate the IES to lie between 0.6 and 0.74. W...
The impact of pandemic on dynamic volatility spillover network of international stock markets [0.03%]
疫情对国际股市动态波动溢出网络的影响
Tingting Lan,Liuguo Shao,Hua Zhang et al.
Tingting Lan et al.
Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, several pandemics, including SARS and COVID-19, have spread faster and on a broader scale. Not only do they harm people's health, but they can also cause significant damage to the global econ...
Oil price shocks and China's consumer and entrepreneur sentiment: a Bayesian structural VAR approach [0.03%]
基于贝叶斯结构向量自回归的油价冲击对中国消费者和企业家信心的影响分析
Peng Li,Yaofu Ouyang
Peng Li
This paper studies the effect of oil price shocks on China's consumer and entrepreneur sentiment using a novel Bayesian inference structural vector autoregression model. Interestingly, we find that oil supply and demand shocks that raise oi...
Nuno Lourenço,António Rua
Nuno Lourenço
Assessing the momentum of the business cycle is of utmost importance for policymakers and private agents. In this respect, the use of business cycle clocks has gained prominence among national and international institutions to depict the cu...
Assessing fiscal multipliers in times of crisis: evidence from selected CEE countries [0.03%]
经济危机时期中东欧选择国家财政乘数的评估证据
Bogdan Muraraşu,Cristina Anghelescu,Robert Adrian Grecu
Bogdan Muraraşu
The COVID-19 pandemic proved to be an unprecedented socio-economic crisis in the last decades. More than three years after its outbreak, there is still uncertainty regarding its future evolution. National and international authorities adopt...
In Choi
In Choi
This paper derives the seasonal factors from the US temperature, gasoline price, and fresh food price data sets using the Kalman state smoother and the principal component analysis. Seasonality in this paper is modeled by the autoregressive...