Kajal Lahiri,Huaming Peng,Yongchen Zhao
Kajal Lahiri
We combine the probability forecasts of a real GDP decline from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters, after trimming the forecasts that do not have "value", as measured by the Kuiper Skill Score and in the sense of Merton (1981). For...
Sang-Hyop Lee,Andrew Mason
Sang-Hyop Lee
Changes in the population age structure are known to influence the total income per person, but little is known about whether the changes are equally shared across the population or are concentrated on particular age groups and/or birth coh...
S P Morgan,R Chen
S P Morgan
Over 50% of the American women now in the midst of the childbearing years have never borne a child. These levels of childlessness for women in their 20s are the highest ones in a time series that spans most of the twentieth century. Will po...
B Edmonston,J S Passel
B Edmonston
This paper proposes a new model for population projections. This model projects an initial population under conditions of fertility, mortality, and international migration (like standard cohort-component models), but considers the populatio...
Confidence intervals for population projections based on Monte Carlo methods [0.03%]
基于蒙特卡洛法的.population.预测置信区间
P Pflaumer
P Pflaumer
"This paper presents an approach of constructing confidence intervals by means of Monte Carlo simulation. This technique attempts to incorporate the uncertainty involved in projecting human populations by letting the fertility and net immig...
Combining probabilistic and subjective assessments of error to provide realistic appraisals of demographic forecast uncertainty: Alho's approach [0.03%]
结合概率性和主观性的误差评估提供真实的人口预测不确定性评价：Alho的方法
L R Carter
L R Carter
"With increasing interest in forecast uncertainty, there is an evolving concern with assessing the degree of certainty we can attach to uncertainty itself. This concern is the subject of recent work by Juha Alho.... I examine [his] approach...
Population, labour force and unemployment in Andalusia: prospects for 1993 [0.03%]
安达卢西亚的居民、劳动力和失业前景(1993年)
J M Otero,G Martin,F Trujillo et al.
J M Otero et al.
"This paper is concerned with forecasting population, employment, labour force and unemployment in Andalusia [Spain] to 1993. For this purpose, a block-recursive demoeconomic model is presented. The demographic submodel is based on the comp...
Further thoughts on simplicity and complexity in population projection models [0.03%]
关于人口预测模型的简约与复杂的再思考
S K Smith
S K Smith
"This article is a review of--and response to--a special issue of Mathematical Population Studies that focused on the relative performance of simpler vs. more complex population projection models. I do not attempt to summarize or comment on...