Wenyun Zuo,Anil Damle,Shripad Tuljapurkar
Wenyun Zuo
The Lee-Carter model (LC) is widely used for forecasting age specific mortality, and typically performs well regardless of the uncertainty and often the limited quality of mortality data. Why? We analyze the robustness of LC using sensitivi...
Adrian E Raftery,Hana Ševčíková
Adrian E Raftery
Population forecasts are used by governments and the private sector for planning, with horizons up to about three generations (around 2100) for different purposes. The traditional methods are deterministic using scenarios, but probabilistic...
Luca Barbaglia,Lorenzo Frattarolo,Luca Onorante et al.
Luca Barbaglia et al.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, economists have struggled to obtain reliable economic predictions, with standard models becoming outdated and their forecasting performance deteriorating rapidly. This paper presents two novelties that could be...
Robert Fildes,Stephan Kolassa,Shaohui Ma
Robert Fildes
This note updates the 2019 review article "Retail forecasting: Research and practice" in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and the substantial new research on machine-learning algorithms, when applied to retail. It offers new conclusions...
Comparing trained and untrained probabilistic ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States [0.03%]
美国COVID-19病例和死亡概率集合预报的统计校准
Evan L Ray,Logan C Brooks,Jacob Bien et al.
Evan L Ray et al.
The U.S. COVID-19 Forecast Hub aggregates forecasts of the short-term burden of COVID-19 in the United States from many contributing teams. We study methods for building an ensemble that combines forecasts from these teams. These experiment...
Spyros Makridakis,Fotios Petropoulos,Evangelos Spiliotis
Spyros Makridakis
William D Larson,Tara M Sinclair
William D Larson
Near-term forecasts, also called nowcasts, are most challenging but also most important when the economy experiences an abrupt change. In this paper, we explore the performance of models with different information sets and data structures i...
Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery: Lessons from the financial crisis [0.03%]
新冠疫情的预测与复苏：金融危机的教训
Claudia Foroni,Massimiliano Marcellino,Dalibor Stevanovic
Claudia Foroni
We consider simple methods to improve the growth nowcasts and forecasts obtained by mixed-frequency MIDAS and UMIDAS models with a variety of indicators during the Covid-19 crisis and recovery period, such as combining forecasts across vari...
Brent H Meyer,Brian Prescott,Xuguang Simon Sheng
Brent H Meyer
We document and evaluate how businesses are reacting to the COVID-19 crisis through August 2020. First, on net, firms see the shock (thus far) largely as a demand rather than supply shock. A greater share of firms report significant or seve...