Nassim Nicholas Taleb,Yaneer Bar-Yam,Pasquale Cirillo
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
We discuss common errors and fallacies when using naive "evidence based" empiricism and point forecasts for fat-tailed variables, as well as the insufficiency of using naive first-order scientific methods for tail risk management. We use th...
Comparing the accuracy of several network-based COVID-19 prediction algorithms [0.03%]
几种基于网络的COVID-19预测算法的精度比较研究
Massimo A Achterberg,Bastian Prasse,Long Ma et al.
Massimo A Achterberg et al.
Researchers from various scientific disciplines have attempted to forecast the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The proposed epidemic prediction methods range from basic curve fitting methods and traffic interaction models to ...
Jurgen A Doornik,Jennifer L Castle,David F Hendry
Jurgen A Doornik
We have been publishing real-time forecasts of confirmed cases and deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) since mid-March 2020 (published at www.doornik.com/COVID-19). These forecasts are short-term statistical extrapolations of pa...
Forecasting in humanitarian operations: Literature review and research needs [0.03%]
人道主义行动中的预测：文献回顾和研究需求
Nezih Altay,Arunachalam Narayanan
Nezih Altay
Forecasting research in the humanitarian context is scarce. In this literature review, our goal is not only to show why forecasting research is important for the humanitarian sector, but also to identify what has been done so far, and where...
John P A Ioannidis,Sally Cripps,Martin A Tanner
John P A Ioannidis
Epidemic forecasting has a dubious track-record, and its failures became more prominent with COVID-19. Poor data input, wrong modeling assumptions, high sensitivity of estimates, lack of incorporation of epidemiological features, poor past ...
Preventing rather than punishing: An early warning model of malfeasance in public procurement [0.03%]
预防而非惩戒：公共采购不当行为的早期预警模型
Jorge Gallego,Gonzalo Rivero,Juan Martínez
Jorge Gallego
Is it possible to predict malfeasance in public procurement? With the proliferation of e-procurement systems in the public sector, anti-corruption agencies and watchdog organizations have access to valuable sources of information with which...
Carl Bonham,Byron Gangnes,Ting Zhou
Carl Bonham
System-based cointegration methods have become popular tools for economic analysis and forecasting. However, the identification of structural relationships is often problematic. Using a theory-directed sequential reduction method suggested ...
Julian Aichholzer,Johanna Willmann
Julian Aichholzer
Forecasting the outcomes of national elections has become established practice in several democracies. In the present paper, we develop an economic voting model for forecasting the future success of the Austrian 'grand coalition', i.e., the...
Computing Systemic Risk Using Multiple Behavioral and Keystone Networks: The Emergence of a Crisis in Primate Societies and Banks [0.03%]
使用多个行为和关键网络计算系统性风险：灵长类社会和银行危机的出现
Hsieh Fushing,Òscar Jordà,Brianne Beisner et al.
Hsieh Fushing et al.
What do the behavior of monkeys in captivity and the financial system have in common? The nodes in such social systems relate to each other through multiple and keystone networks, not just one network. Each network in the system has its own...
Kajal Lahiri,Huaming Peng,Yongchen Zhao
Kajal Lahiri
We combine the probability forecasts of a real GDP decline from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters, after trimming the forecasts that do not have "value", as measured by the Kuiper Skill Score and in the sense of Merton (1981). For...