Accounting for variability in conflict dynamics: A pattern-based predictive model [0.03%]
基于模式的预测模型解释冲突动态的变化性
Thomas Schincariol,Hannah Frank,Thomas Chadefaux
Thomas Schincariol
Existing models for predicting conflict fatalities frequently produce conservative forecasts that gravitate towards the mean. While these approaches have a low average prediction error, they offer limited insights into temporal variations i...
Yuleng Zeng,Andreas Dür
Yuleng Zeng
Economic sanctions could cause substantial harm to target states, forcing them to undertake tough guns-versus-butter trade-offs. Although existing research has argued that sanctioned countries reduce their military spending in absolute term...
Renting political violence: A political economy of rents, access and violence delegation [0.03%]
租用政治暴力：租金、通路和暴力委托的政治经济学
Maureen Fubara
Maureen Fubara
What explains variation in incumbents' choice of political violence perpetrators? Incumbents often sponsor violence in elections but do not typically engage in it themselves, instead delegating violence to security forces, armed groups, par...
Engineered non-contestation: Deterring electoral contestation using violence in local elections [0.03%]
工程化的不反对：利用暴力威慑地方选举中的竞选活动
Noyonika Das
Noyonika Das
How and why do incumbents use local elections as tools for subverting democracy and establishing party dominance? Integrating literatures on political violence and decentralization, this article argues that incumbents use violence to engine...
Andrea Ruggeri,Ursula Daxecker,Neeraj Prasad
Andrea Ruggeri
It is well established that democracies experience less political violence than autocracies. Paradoxically, however, this widely accepted fact has led scholars to overlook the existence of various forms of political violence within democrac...
'Those MONUSCO agents left while we were still pregnant': Accountability and support for peacekeeper-fathered children in the DRC [0.03%]
“他们在我们怀孕时离开 mission ”：刚果（金）关于维和人员父亲的儿童问责制和支持问题
Heather Tasker,Katie van der Werf,Annie Bunting et al.
Heather Tasker et al.
The Democratic Republic of Congo hosts the longest-running and largest United Nations peacekeeping mission in history. The United Nations also has reckoned with sexual exploitation and abuse in its own ranks and, in 2003, recognized its imp...
Microchips and sneakers: Bilateral trade, shifting power, and interstate conflict [0.03%]
微芯片和运动鞋：双边贸易、权力转移与国家间冲突
Yuleng Zeng
Yuleng Zeng
Strong commercial ties promote peace as states shun the opportunity costs of economic disruption. However, trade also enriches and empowers states, rendering them more capable of enforcing long-term settlements. Given economic disruption do...
Local ethno-political polarization and election violence in majoritarian vs. proportional systems [0.03%]
主要制与比例代表制下的地方族裔政治极化与选举暴力
Carl Müller-Crepon
Carl Müller-Crepon
How does local ethnic demography affect the conduct of majoritarian elections? Because legislative elections in majoritarian systems are contested locally, local ethno-political polarization increases the risk of pre-election violence. In d...
Tracking the rise of United States foreign military training: IMTAD-USA, a new dataset and research agenda [0.03%]
美国对外军事训练的扩张及其数据和研究框架：以IMTAD-USA为例
Theodore McLauchlin,Lee Jm Seymour,Simon Pierre Boulanger Martel
Theodore McLauchlin
Training other countries' armed forces is a go-to foreign policy tool for the United States and other states. A growing literature explores the effects of military training, but researchers lack detailed data on training activities. To asse...
Jana Krause
Jana Krause
This article examines the ethics of using ethnographic methods in contemporary conflict zones. Ethnographic research is an embodied research practice of immersion within a field site whereby researchers use ethnographic sensibility to study...