Towards predicting COVID-19 infection waves: A random-walk Monte Carlo simulation approach [0.03%]
预测新冠肺炎疫情的波动态势：随机漫步蒙特卡洛模拟方法
D P Mahapatra,S Triambak
D P Mahapatra
Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In ligh...
A random forest model for forecasting regional COVID-19 cases utilizing reproduction number estimates and demographic data [0.03%]
基于再生数估计和人口统计信息的区域COVID-19病例预测随机森林模型
Joseph Galasso,Duy M Cao,Robert Hochberg
Joseph Galasso
During the COVID-19 pandemic, predicting case spikes at the local level is important for a precise, targeted public health response and is generally done with compartmental models. The performance of compartmental models is highly dependent...
Prediction intervals of the COVID-19 cases by HAR models with growth rates and vaccination rates in top eight affected countries: Bootstrap improvement [0.03%]
基于增长和疫苗接种率的HAR模型预测八大疫情国的预测区间：Bootstrap改进方法
Eunju Hwang
Eunju Hwang
This paper is devoted to modeling and predicting COVID-19 confirmed cases through a multiple linear regression. Especially, prediction intervals of the COVID-19 cases are extensively studied. Due to long-memory feature of the COVID-19 data,...
A symbiosis between cellular automata and dynamic weighted multigraph with application on virus spread modeling [0.03%]
基于细胞自动机与动态加权多重图共生的病毒传播模型研究
Somaye Moghari,Maryam Ghorani
Somaye Moghari
The pattern of coronavirus spread at different geographical scales verifies that travel or shipment by air, sea or road are potential to transmit viruses from one location to somewhere far away in a very short time. Simulation and analysis ...
Cooperation dynamics under pandemic risks and heterogeneous economic interdependence [0.03%]
具有异质性经济相互依赖性的大流行风险下的合作动力学
Manuel Chica,Juan M Hernández,Francisco C Santos
Manuel Chica
The spread of COVID-19 and ensuing containment measures have accentuated the profound interdependence among nations or regions. This has been particularly evident in tourism, one of the sectors most affected by uncoordinated mobility restri...
E Pelinovsky,M Kokoulina,A Epifanova et al.
E Pelinovsky et al.
The paper reports on application of the Gompertz model to describe the growth dynamics of COVID-19 cases during the first wave of the pandemic in different countries. Modeling has been performed for 23 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium...
Modeling the epidemic control measures in overcoming COVID-19 outbreaks: A fractional-order derivative approach [0.03%]
克服COVID-19爆发的疫情控制措施建模：分数阶导数方法
Mohammad Sharif Ullah,M Higazy,K M Ariful Kabir
Mohammad Sharif Ullah
Novel coronavirus named SARS-CoV-2 is one of the global threads and uncertain challenges worldwide faced at present. It has stroke rapidly around the globe due to viral transmissibility, new variants (strains), and human unconsciousness. La...
Modeling the effect of the vaccination campaign on the COVID-19 pandemic [0.03%]
疫苗接种运动对COVID-19大流行的影响建模
Mattia Angeli,Georgios Neofotistos,Marios Mattheakis et al.
Mattia Angeli et al.
Population-wide vaccination is critical for containing the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic when combined with restrictive and prevention measures. In this study we introduce SAIVR, a mathematical model able to forecast the COVID-19 epidemic ...
Large-scale Interactive Numerical Experiments of Chaos, Solitons and Fractals in Real Time via GPU in a Web Browser [0.03%]
通过网络浏览器实时大规模互动数值实验研究混沌、孤子和分形
Abouzar Kaboudian,Elizabeth M Cherry,Flavio H Fenton
Abouzar Kaboudian
The study of complex systems has emerged as an important field with many discoveries still to be made. Computer simulation and visualization provide important tools for studying complex dynamics including chaos, solitons, and fractals, but ...
Mathematical assessment of the dynamics of novel coronavirus infection with treatment: A fractional study [0.03%]
治疗新型冠状病毒感染动力学的数学评估：分数阶研究
Xuan Liu,Saif Ullah,Ahmed Alshehri et al.
Xuan Liu et al.
In this paper, a mathematical model is formulated to study the transmission dynamics of the novel coronavirus infection under the effect of treatment. The compartmental model is firstly formulated using a system of nonlinear ordinary differ...