J Scott Davis,Andrei Zlate
J Scott Davis
We estimate the heterogeneous effect of the global financial cycle on exchange rates and cross-border capital flows during the COVID-19 pandemic, using weekly exchange rate and portfolio flow data for a panel of 59 advanced and emerging mar...
The politicized pandemic: Ideological polarization and the behavioral response to COVID-19 [0.03%]
政治化流行病：意识形态分化与对新冠状病毒的反应行为
Gianluca Grimalda,Fabrice Murtin,David Pipke et al.
Gianluca Grimalda et al.
In a representative sample of the U.S. population during the first summer of the COVID-19 pandemic, we investigate how prosociality and ideology interact in their relationship with health-protecting behavior and trust in the government to h...
Òscar Jordà,Fernanda Nechio
Òscar Jordà
Following the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation surged to levels last seen in the 1980s. Motivated by vast differences in pandemic support across countries, we investigate the subsequent response of inflation and its feedback to wag...
Natascha Hinterlang,Stephane Moyen,Oke Röhe et al.
Natascha Hinterlang et al.
We simulate the fiscal stimulus package set up by the German government to alleviate the costs of the COVID-19 pandemic in a dynamic New Keynesian multi-sector general equilibrium model. We find that, cumulated over 2020-2022, output losses...
David K Levine
David K Levine
Will the last be the first? School closures and educational outcomes [0.03%]
最后一个会成为第一个吗？学校关闭与教育成果的关系
Michele Battisti,Giuseppe Maggio
Michele Battisti
Governments have implemented school closures and online learning as one of the main tools to reduce the spread of Covid-19. Despite the potential benefits in terms of containment of virus diffusion, the educational costs of these policies m...
Euro area sovereign bond risk premia before and during the Covid-19 pandemic [0.03%]
新冠肺炎疫情前后欧元区主权债券的风险溢价变化
Stefano Corradin,Bernd Schwaab
Stefano Corradin
We provide a novel modeling framework to decompose euro area sovereign bond yields into five distinct components: ( i ) expected future short-term risk-free rates and a term premium, ( i i ) a default risk premium, ( i i i ) redenominatio...
Estimating the euro area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic [0.03%]
基于多变量信息估算欧元区产出缺口并应对新冠肺炎疫情的影响
James Morley,Diego Rodríguez-Palenzuela,Yiqiao Sun et al.
James Morley et al.
We estimate the euro area output gap by applying the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on a large Bayesian vector autoregression. Our approach incorporates multivariate information through the inclusion of a wide range of variables in th...
Who should bear the burden of COVID-19 related fiscal pressure? An optimal income taxation perspective [0.03%]
谁应承担与COVID-19相关的财政压力？一个关于最优所得税的观点
Mehmet Ayaz,Lea Fricke,Clemens Fuest et al.
Mehmet Ayaz et al.
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an increase in public debt in most countries, and the Ukraine war is likely to have similar effects. This will increase fiscal pressure in the future. We study how the shape of the optimal nonlinear income t...
Inequality, fiscal policy and COVID19 restrictions in a demand-determined economy [0.03%]
不平等，财政政策和需求决定型经济中的COVID19限制措施
Alan J Auerbach,Yuriy Gorodnichenko,Daniel Murphy
Alan J Auerbach
We evaluate the effects of inequality, fiscal policy, and COVID19 restrictions in a model of economic slack with potentially rigid capital operating costs. Rich households satiate their demand for goods/services (and consume an endowment on...