Old trees, often living for hundreds or even thousands of years, play vital roles in maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, their extraordinary longevity occurs under rare circumstances, as most individuals succumb to mortality. From an optimal resource allocation perspective, species adopting a life-history strategy with a high potential maximum lifespan (PML) are expected to also have a higher life expectancy (LE). Here we developed a framework to assess the longevity of 1-cm-diameter trees and calculated the PML and LE for 53 major tree species in Japan. The results revealed that the PML (mean 378 years) was 4.7 times higher than the LE (mean 81 years). Both indices showed a positive correlation, with a regression slope of 0.34; however, the explanatory power of the model was low (R² = 0.22). This can be attributed to the fact that LE exhibits a stronger negative response to climate-related habitat severity compared with that of PML. Our findings suggest two key points: (1) trees may adopt a hierarchical ordering of demographic parameters that prioritize long-term survival duration over average survival rate, and (2) considering this balance, which varies among species, could enhance the cost-effectiveness of ecosystem restoration.

© 2025. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.

古老的树木往往可以活几百年甚至上千年，它们在维护生物多样性和生态系统服务方面起着至关重要的作用。然而，这种非凡的长寿发生在极为罕见的情况下，因为大多数个体最终都会死亡。从最优资源分配的角度来看，采取具有较高潜在最大寿命（PML）生活史策略的物种也被预期拥有更高的平均寿命（LE）。在这里，我们开发了一个框架来评估直径为1厘米树木的长寿，并计算了日本53种主要树种的PML和LE。结果显示，PML（平均378年）是LE（平均81年）的4.7倍。这两个指标呈正相关，回归斜率为0.34；然而，该模型的解释力较低（R²=0.22）。这可以归因于LE相对于气候相关的栖息地恶劣程度表现出更强的负面响应，而PML则不然。我们的研究结果表明了两个关键点：(1) 树木可能采用了将长期生存时间优先于平均存活率的人口参数层级排序策略；(2) 考虑这种随物种变化的平衡关系，可以提高生态系统恢复的成本效益。

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