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The Journal of the Operational Research Society. 2013;64(5):638-653. doi: 10.1057/jors.2012.80 Q32.72024

Managing the social amplification of risk: a simulation of interacting actors

风险管理的社会放大效应——相关行动主体互动的模拟模型研究 翻译改进

J S Busby  1, S Onggo  1

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  • 1 Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK.
  • DOI: 10.1057/jors.2012.80 PMID: 32226178

    摘要 Ai翻译

    A central problem in managing risk is dealing with social processes that either exaggerate or understate it. A longstanding approach to understanding such processes has been the social amplification of risk framework. But this implies that some true level of risk becomes distorted in social actors' perceptions. Many risk events are characterised by such uncertainties, disagreements and changes in scientific knowledge that it becomes unreasonable to speak of a true level of risk. The most we can often say in such cases is that different groups believe each other to be either amplifying or attenuating a risk. This inherent subjectivity raises the question as to whether risk managers can expect any particular kinds of outcome to emerge. This question is the basis for a case study of zoonotic disease outbreaks using systems dynamics as a modelling medium. The model shows that processes suggested in the social amplification of risk framework produce polarised risk responses among different actors, but that the subjectivity magnifies this polarisation considerably. As this subjectivity takes more complex forms it leaves problematic residues at the end of a disease outbreak, such as an indefinite drop in economic activity and an indefinite increase in anxiety.

    Keywords: risk management; risk perception; simulation; social amplification of risk framework; system dynamics; zoonosis.

    Keywords:social amplification of risk; simulation; interacting actors

    Copyright © The Journal of the Operational Research Society. 中文内容为AI机器翻译,仅供参考!

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    期刊名:Journal of the operational research society

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    ISSN:0160-5682

    e-ISSN:1476-9360

    IF/分区:2.7/Q3

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