In typical political experiments, researchers randomize a set of households, precincts, or individuals to treatments all at once, and characteristics of all units are known at the time of randomization. However, in many other experiments, subjects "trickle in" to be randomized to treatment conditions, usually via complete randomization. To take advantage of the rich background data that researchers often have (but underutilize) in these experiments, we develop methods that use continuous covariates to assign treatments sequentially. We build on biased coin and minimization procedures for discrete covariates and demonstrate that our methods outperform complete randomization, producing better covariate balance in simulated data. We then describe how we selected and deployed a sequential blocking method in a clinical trial and demonstrate the advantages of our having done so. Further, we show how that method would have performed in two larger sequential political trials. Finally, we compare causal effect estimates from differences in means, augmented inverse propensity weighted estimators, and randomization test inversion.
Political analysis : an annual publication of the Methodology Section of the American Political Science Association. 2013 Oct;21(4):507-523. doi: 10.1093/pan/mpt007 Q14.72024
Blocking for Sequential Political Experiments
顺序政治实验中的分层随机化方法 翻译改进
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DOI: 10.1093/pan/mpt007 PMID: 24143061
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